“This is a wake-up call”

Do you think the impact of storm damage and coastal erosion in Scotland this winter has woken up people who have been complacent, or even cynical, about climate change?

Yes, I think this is a wake-up call for us to take this subject more seriously and identify the key lessons. This storm season has been very concerning, with 11 named storms, and that may be something we will have to get used to in the future. So, in that sense, it's a useful opportunity to see what our future may look like, what that means to us and how we need to act.

Is the pattern of coastal erosion this year worse than you would have expected when you first began working on Dynamic Coast?

Some aspects of it are in terms of the clustering of storm events. But, if we actually stand back from the short term, and have a look against what we were projecting from a modelling perspective, then these are the sorts of events and changes we expect to see. We ought to be learning lessons from that now, and using this as an opportunity to get our house in order. This is our chance to plan while we have time, as opposed to 10-20 years’ time when we’re going to be seeing these sorts of events more frequently and almost certainly won’t have the headspace to deal with it effectively.

Do you think the message is getting through at national and local governmental level, and among other stakeholders along the Scottish coast, that this is now very much about ‘adaptation’ rather than just net zero targets? 

I think that's coming. COP26 in Glasgow (November 2020) was one of the first major meetings highlighting the imbalance between mitigation and adaptation. Our research at a Scottish level confirms that you can't mitigate your way out of this. We have to adapt as well as mitigate. Whether you're looking at infrastructure, communities, ports, or recreational activities, all of these things are on the coast, and many of them have been impacted this year, which is a telling reminder of our exposure. So we're at the beginning of this journey, planning ahead and working out the climate change adaptation requirements across the coastal zone. And like many countries, we're starting to make progress but we need to move faster, commit resources and deliver. The Scottish Government has shown leadership here with funding of £11.7 million over four years to support local authorities in developing Coastal Change Adaption Plans. We've ensured guidance is available and we're learning from case studies, so there is lots going on and it will make a difference in time. 

Making progress on coastal erosion clearly involves numerous stakeholders and sometimes conflicting interests. How good do you think we are in Scotland at the kind of partnership working required to make progress, and are there any changes you would like to see in terms of the way everyone works together?

There is a tension in there. Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, our public finances have been under incredible pressure and, at the same time, the Climate Change Act raises expectations. Cutting emissions and adapting are the right things to do but they take time. That said, Scotland is a cracking wee country which is small enough for many of us to know other people in professional communities across the country, or share mutual contacts. So we have an opportunity here to make changes through a more collegiate approach. That’s an enormous strength and we’re seeing it happen now. We should build on that because our colleagues in England look enviously at the situation in Scotland. Yes, they have more money down south and it’s a bigger industry but it's more straightforward up here. We've got government, we've got local authorities and we've got some partners on the ground, but there are fewer organisations getting in the way and less inertia in the system – we can be much more agile. We need to play to our strengths, get on with it and deliver.

When you appeared in a recent BBC Scotland news report about coastal erosion in East Lothian, you stressed the need to develop greater resilience across the board as a society, including businesses and communities. Why is that so important?

‘Resilience’ is one of those words, like ‘sustainability’, that people have come to use a lot, and in many different ways. And the resilience angle is important not just from the perspective of the physical geographer thinking about the resilience of our landforms and coastal systems, but also from a societal perspective of understanding the risks we face and the pressures we’re under. And if we start to address those pressures as communities there are a whole bunch of spin-off benefits. For instance, I was speaking in Golspie recently as part of a Royal visit, and hearing about the local flood group which was organising the day. One of the benefits from that community’s perspective is that, yes, the flood group is exploring community-based resilience approaches for flooding and erosion, but they are now also the same group of people who are running around helping one another when, for instance, there's a power cut. So, the whole idea of resilience and adaptation has wider benefits across communities. Community involvement, and the feeling of place, is really important.

Obviously, you’re looking at the whole Scottish coast but is there anything you would say that distinguishes coastal erosion around the Forth – is it better, worse, different in any way?

The Forth is a busy place. People are drawn to that part of the coast and the proximity of coastal assets and communities is significant. That’s great but it also means you’re particularly exposed to more extreme weather events. What we can learn from the Forth can also be applied to some of the busier parts of the Clyde and the other firths further north. Similarly, some of the lessons from quieter parts of the firth coasts elsewhere in Scotland can also be applied to the quieter parts of the Forth. So, with all of this, we're keen to learn what we can from all of these examples, and then apply them appropriately to tackle coastal erosion and flooding. So, for instance, if we look at a particular storm track, which way did the low pressure move and what orientation did the winds come from? Where were the waves generated and where did they go? Which headland did they go around? What phase of the tide did they arrive at? Was it a neap tide or a spring tide? What happened at that beach a month ago or two weeks ago? Was there an earlier storm? All of these sorts of factors have a strong influence on how a storm presents itself and how the changes are manifested. And what we're learning, particularly from this storm season, is that it's the combination of events that is important. Storm Babet arrived during the neap tides so the storm tended to punch a hole in the middle or upper part of the beach. And then the week after, we had strong waves that coincided with a spring tide, which meant that the high tide was higher, so big, chunky waves impacted much higher up a previously lowered beach. And that combination impacted a lot of beaches. For instance, and although it’s just north of the Forth Estuary, the West Sands at St Andrews lost about half a million cubic metres of sand. That’s a big number – between half a metre and a metre across a substantial area. And we've seen similar sort of amounts dropping from other beach systems, such as around East Lothian. Some of that will probably be starting to repair itself already, and we've had reports of beach levels starting to rise again, which is good and hopefully a sign of that natural repair that we often take for granted.

What is the future of the Dynamic Coast project?

From an international perspective, Dynamic Coast has been a very cost-effective project, which is starting to have an impact across key policy areas. The Scottish Government recognises this and the challenge that remains ahead of us. However, the research funding has been periodic. We completed the first phase of research in 2017 and the second in 2021, and we're now looking at how we take that forward, fitting in within other bits of government work. For instance, what work is suited to working collectively with local authorities, and what things might be better done at a national level?

And you’re supporting the Climate Ready South East Scotland project by contributing your data? 

We are. Our data provides a good baseline to build on. Locally, however, there will be some really good detail that we weren't able to get at previously, and new datasets may have come on board as well. So these sorts of projects allow us to build on previous work and consider more detailed opportunities within the Forth. That’s the great benefit of projects such as this.

With all this happening in your role as a coastal geomorphologist, can you enjoy a walk along the beach on a Sunday afternoon or are you always looking for signs of erosion?

There's an element of that, whereby you’re always looking at things through the lens of your work, but I’m sure there are lots of other specialists who take their work with them too. On the other hand, my work does mean that I have the chance to visit lots of interesting places. We're blessed in Scotland. The majority of the population is within a short journey of the coast and, more often than not, you come back from a visit to the seaside feeling a whole lot better. It’s a resource we should treasure.

What is Dynamic Coast doing?
Dynamic Coast aims to:

• Improve the evidence on coastal change.

• Improve awareness of coastal change.

• Support decision-makers to ensure Scotland’s coast and assets can adapt to our future climate.

Currently funded by the Scottish Government. Earlier research was funded by the Centre of Expertise for Waters, NatureScot and the St Andrews Links Trust.

Dynamic Coast has already published several research reports about coastal erosion in Scotland, with the main output being its National Overview published in 2021.

For more information and access to its research, visit www.dynamiccoast.com 

Other stories from Issue Three of ForthRight:

How can we adapt to climate change?
The launch of Climate Ready South East Scotland

“I’m a climate model geek”
Discover what drives Cat Payne of Sniffer

Climate change in charts
Key Met Office data

What can we learn from the Clyde?
Lessons from climate adaptability work in Glasgow

How are we doing?
Please do send us feedback with your thoughts on the newsletter and the issues we’re covering.
[email protected]